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Kansas City Chiefs News
Kelce was a popular man with a crowded podium, but a child reporter managed to ask Travis Kelce one of the best questions of the night on Monday. He asked what question Kelce would ask the media. To which Kelce replied, “Why are you guys leaning into this whole ref thing?”
It’s a topic that has been beaten to death for months by fans and media all around the NFL. But is there really any evidence that the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes get preferential treatment? And if not, could we please move on? Travis Kelce certainly wants to.
Is an AFC Title loss the end of an era for the Chiefs?Is an AFC Title loss the end of an era for the Chiefs?
The short answer to Travis Kelce’s question is that everyone loves to hate the best. The Chiefs have undeniably been the best NFL franchise now for over half a decade, making it to seven straight AFC Championship Games, winning three Super Bowls in that span already. Now they’re set to potentially win another. And if they do plenty of fans and media will likely complain about the refs yet again. But should they?
The short answer is no.
Despite all the complaints (and Patrick Mahomes’ legitimate flopping in some cases) there’s little to no evidence that referees are giving the Chiefs any real preferential treatment. At least not the kind that adds significant value to their win probability and large scale down to down success rates when compared to the 31 other NFL teams.
Ryan Heath (a data driven journalist) broke things down plainly a couple weeks ago when it came to the Chiefs’ win probability added via penalties. According to large sample data since 2023 the Chiefs aren’t even a Top 10 team in win probability added via penalties. They’re also not even a Top 25 team in EPA (expected points added) via penalties either.
In English: The penalties are not why the Chiefs are winning, and they’re not benefiting from them at a rate that is worth complaining about at all.
Now there are some important caveats to consider with penalties in that some are more impactful than others. And some penalties are ones that are simply not called as well. However, the Chiefs clearly have not gained consistent advantages over the majority of other teams in the NFL since the beginning of the 2023 season. This isn’t opinion. It’s measurable, verifiable fact.
Hopefully one day fans of the 31 other teams in the NFL just stop complaining long enough to appreciate the greatness that is the current Kansas City Chiefs dynasty. Andy Reid. Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce. Consistently impressive defenses with Steve Spagnuolo calling the shots. Each of the aforementioned four men may eventually go down as the greatest to ever execute their particular position or coaching role.
But sure, yeah, it’s just the penalties that have gotten the Chiefs their fifth shot at a Super Bowl in the last six years.
